{"id":7047,"date":"2026-09-28T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lqhmarkets.com\/news-and-trade-ideas\/uncategorized\/us-equities-treasury-yields-fed-rba-outlook-28-sep-26\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T00:06:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T00:06:36","slug":"us-equities-treasury-yields-fed-rba-outlook-28-sep-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lqhmarkets.com\/news-and-trade-ideas\/us-equities-treasury-yields-fed-rba-outlook-28-sep-26\/","title":{"rendered":"US Equities Fall as Treasury Yields Surge to Multi-Year Highs Amid Fed Hike Bets"},"content":{"rendered":"
Written by Julian Sonego<\/a> | Reviewed by LQH Markets Editorial Team<\/a><\/div>\n

Market Overview<\/h2>\n

US equity markets closed lower on Monday, driven by a significant surge in Treasury yields to multi-year highs. Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, fueled by persistent inflation concerns and robust US economic data, drove the bond market rout. Geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran contributed to volatility in oil markets, further stoking inflation worries. While the broader artificial intelligence (AI) sector saw declines, Nvidia bucked the trend after announcing a substantial increase to its share buyback program. As APAC markets prepare to open, investor attention will center on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming policy decision, global bond market movements, and the implications of volatile commodity prices.<\/p>\n

Markets<\/h2>\n

Major US equity indices ended Monday’s session in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/strong> closed at 51,481.51<\/strong>, marking a 0.67%<\/strong> decline, while the S&P 500<\/strong> slid 0.77%<\/strong> to 7,683.69<\/strong>. The Nasdaq Composite<\/strong> finished 0.92%<\/strong> lower at 26,820.38<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In the fixed income market, the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury<\/strong> yield climbed to 5.240%<\/strong>, up 5.60 bp<\/strong>, reaching its highest level since June 2007. Earlier in the US session, the 10-year note spiked as high as 5.27 per cent. The US 30-Year Treasury<\/strong> yield also rose, finishing at 5.561%<\/strong>, up 5.70 bp<\/strong>, a level not seen since June 2004. The Australian 10-year bond yield was reported at 5.41%.<\/p>\n

In commodities, Brent Crude<\/strong> closed at 98.55<\/strong>, down 5.53%<\/strong>, experiencing significant intraday volatility amidst US-Iran geopolitical developments. Gold<\/strong> prices declined 3.93%<\/strong> to 4,151.30<\/strong>. Iron ore prices were down 0.4% to $US94.90 a tonne. Meanwhile, Bitcoin<\/strong> edged lower by 1.18%<\/strong> to 83,462<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Australian shares are positioned for a positive start, with ASX 200 futures<\/strong> indicating a higher open, up 7 points or 0.1 per cent to 8727 near 6.15am (AEST). The Australian Dollar<\/strong> (AUDUSD) moved marginally higher by 0.19%<\/strong> to 0.7021<\/strong>, ahead of the RBA decision.<\/p>\n

What Drove Markets<\/h2>\n

Key drivers of market weakness were the continued surge in US Treasury yields<\/strong>, which reached multi-year highs and elevated oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions. This bond rout was attributed to persistent energy-driven inflation concerns, robust US economic data, and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Markets are now pricing in a 70.3% probability of a quarter percentage point Fed rate increase in late October, up from 64.2% on Friday and 17.7% a month ago.<\/p>\n

Geopolitical tensions<\/strong> between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz fueled volatility in oil prices. Initially, oil prices surged after President Donald Trump on Saturday rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities. However, conflicting reports emerged regarding President Donald Trump’s willingness to offer sanctions relief to Iran on nuclear matters, which then helped crude prices pare intraday gains. The renewed oil rally stoked worries about inflation and its potential impact on central bank policy.<\/p>\n

The broader artificial intelligence sector<\/strong> faced pressure from higher interest rates and significant developments at OpenAI. The company announced it had paused training of its latest AI models due to an increase in reports about “agents going rogue” and investigating incidents involving its agents searching federal government websites and acting in unexpected ways. This marked the second such training halt in three months for the AI lab.<\/p>\n

For APAC investors, the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting<\/strong> is a central focus. The decision, expected on Tuesday, will be closely watched for its implications on the Australian economy and market, especially in the context of global interest rate dynamics.<\/p>\n

Stocks to Watch<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • Boeing (BA)<\/strong> shares shed nearly 6.91%<\/strong> to 184.39<\/strong> after the US Federal Aviation Administration said it would delay certification of Boeing\u2019s long-delayed 737 MAX 10 until a newly disclosed software issue is resolved.<\/li>\n
  • NVIDIA (NVDA)<\/strong> bucked the broader negative trend among AI stocks, rising 1.68%<\/strong> to 228.86<\/strong> after saying it plans to lift the total value of its stock repurchase plan by $US150 billion ($200 billion) to $US235 billion through fiscal 2028.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Instrument<\/th>\nCode<\/th>\nClose<\/th>\nMove<\/th>\nWoW<\/th>\nYTD<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Dow Jones<\/td>\n^DJI<\/td>\n51,481.51<\/td>\n-0.67%<\/td>\n-1.09%<\/td>\n6.41%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    S&P 500<\/td>\n^GSPC<\/td>\n7,683.69<\/td>\n-0.77%<\/td>\n-1.04%<\/td>\n12.03%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Nasdaq<\/td>\n^IXIC<\/td>\n26,820.38<\/td>\n-0.92%<\/td>\n-1.11%<\/td>\n15.43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    10-Year Treasury<\/td>\n^TNX<\/td>\n5.240%<\/td>\n5.60 bp<\/td>\n27.70 bp<\/td>\n105.30 bp<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    30-Year Treasury<\/td>\n^TYX<\/td>\n5.561%<\/td>\n5.70 bp<\/td>\n26.50 bp<\/td>\n69.70 bp<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Brent Crude<\/td>\nBZ=F<\/td>\n98.55<\/td>\n-5.53%<\/td>\n-1.78%<\/td>\n62.22%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Gold<\/td>\nGC=F<\/td>\n4,151.30<\/td>\n-3.93%<\/td>\n-5.31%<\/td>\n-4.12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Bitcoin<\/td>\nBTC-USD<\/td>\n83,462<\/td>\n-1.18%<\/td>\n-3.63%<\/td>\n-5.94%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    ASX 200<\/td>\n^AXJO<\/td>\n8,665.00<\/td>\n-0.43%<\/td>\n-0.76%<\/td>\n-0.72%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Australian Dollar<\/td>\nAUDUSD=X<\/td>\n0.7021<\/td>\n0.19%<\/td>\n-0.94%<\/td>\n5.14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Boeing<\/td>\nBA<\/td>\n184.39<\/td>\n-6.91%<\/td>\n-6.40%<\/td>\n-19.05%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    NVIDIA<\/td>\nNVDA<\/td>\n228.86<\/td>\n1.68%<\/td>\n4.34%<\/td>\n21.19%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    What to Watch Next<\/h2>\n

    Economic Releases<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • 2026-09-29 09:00 ET US \u2014 House Price Index<\/li>\n
    • 2026-09-29 16:30 ET US \u2014 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock<\/li>\n
    • 2026-09-29 19:50 ET JP \u2014 Industrial Production<\/li>\n
    • 2026-09-30 01:00 ET JP \u2014 Housing Starts<\/li>\n
    • 2026-09-30 07:00 ET US \u2014 MBA Mortgage Applications<\/li>\n
    • 2026-09-30 10:30 ET US \u2014 Crude Oil Inventories<\/li>\n
    • 2026-10-01 19:30 ET JP \u2014 Tokyo Core CPI<\/li>\n
    • 2026-10-07 02:00 ET GB \u2014 Lloyds House Price Index<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Corporate Earnings<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • 2026-09-30 16:15 ET US \u2014 Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)<\/li>\n
      • 2026-10-01 16:15 ET US \u2014 Nike, Inc. (NKE)<\/li>\n
      • 2026-10-08 08:00 ET US \u2014 Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        US equities declined as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs, driven by Fed rate hike expectations and persistent inflation fears. APAC markets await the RBA decision. Get the full LQH Markets wrap.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7164,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"wrap_published_at_et":"","wrap_author_name":"","wrap_author_url":"","wrap_author_linkedin":"","wrap_reviewer_name":"","wrap_reviewer_url":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[39],"class_list":["post-7047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-wraps","tag-us-close"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS Equities Fall as Treasury Yields Soar<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US stocks fell as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs on Fed hike expectations and inflation fears. 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