Market Overview
US equities closed higher on Friday, capping a resilient week marked by volatile trading despite a surge in Treasury yields. The upward momentum was largely supported by a significant decline in oil prices, fueled by optimism over a potential US-Iran deal concerning the Strait of Hormuz, alongside sustained strength in AI-focused technology stocks. However, longer-term US Treasury yields remain anchored near multi-year highs, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Geopolitical developments, including the conclusion of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s US visit and ongoing US-China trade discussions, are set to influence the upcoming APAC session.
Markets
US equity benchmarks ended Friday’s session in positive territory, contributing to weekly gains. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed up 0.51% at 7,743.41, posting a 1.21% advance for the week. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.48% to 27,068.72, marking a 2.06% rise over the week, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 0.93% to 51,828.62, adding 0.28% for the week.
In commodities, oil prices experienced a notable decline. Brent Crude (BZ=F) traded at 97.47, down 8.56%, while WTI Crude (CL=F) traded at 92.44, falling 2.29%.
Benchmark US Treasury borrowing costs halted their upward surge on Friday, though yields remained near multi-year highs. The 10-Year Treasury (^TNX) traded at 5.184%, up 2.20 bp, while the 30-Year Treasury (^TYX) traded at 5.504%, up 4.30 bp.
What Drove Markets
US stocks demonstrated remarkable resilience, closing higher on Friday and achieving weekly gains despite a volatile trading environment. This performance came amid surging Treasury yields and conflicting geopolitical signals. The market’s strength was primarily attributed to a reprieve in oil prices and a resurgence in mega-cap technology stocks. Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist at LPL Financial, noted that the S&P 500 demonstrated remarkable resilience despite mounting macro headwinds, attributing much of this to the resurgence of mega-cap stocks, including the Magnificent Seven. Eric Diton, president of The Wealth Alliance, noted that investor sentiment had been weakening as bond yields rose, with bearish sentiment seeing a “sharp” increase from two weeks earlier. He also added that the market has been “incredibly resilient” in the face of these developments, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq roughly 1% below their recent highs.
Longer-term US Treasury yields reached multi-year highs during the week, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2004. This bond rout was fueled by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr and other officials, persistently high energy prices due to the Iran war, and a hot purchasing managers’ report. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing a roughly 64% likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October, an increase from nearly 58% a week ago. Keith Lerner, chief investment officer and chief market strategist at Truist, told Investing.com that rates were the central market driver for the week and would likely continue to be so in the near term. He suggested viewing the current pullback as an opportunity rather than a reason to become defensive, highlighting that higher rates are now providing meaningful income opportunities not seen for years.
Oil prices slid significantly on Friday, easing market sentiment amid optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened. This followed reports that Iran has asked the U.S. to return to a memorandum of understanding to de-escalate Middle East conflict, with the U.S. and Iran reportedly exploring a phased deal. Iran’s conditions for returning to negotiations include the “cessation of aggressive U.S. actions, including the naval blockade and economic terrorism; ending the war on all fronts; release of Iran’s frozen or restricted assets; acceptance of a safe shipping route in the manner agreed upon between the two coastal governments.” This offered a “reprieve” to market participants despite earlier volatile crude trading.
The artificial intelligence (AI) trade experienced a solid rally through the week. This was notably bolstered by excitement surrounding Meta Platforms’ (META) new personal AI agent, Muse, which launched on September 8 and has become one of the most popular free apps for consumers, capable of executing autonomous, multi-step tasks. This demand also raised investor concerns for sub-sectors like travel aggregators, telecom, ride-hailing, and financials, as Muse is capable of performing multi-step tasks such as booking travel, managing calendars, and auditing bank statements. Microsoft (MSFT) also saw gains after announcing plans to merge its consumer and workplace Copilot AI assistants. This resurgence in mega-cap tech stocks was a key factor in powering the broader market.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first state visit to the US since 2015 concluded on Friday. While direct discussions on Iran between Xi and Trump were muted, the two countries agreed to extend their trade truce by two months. U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue stated that President Trump made it “very clear” to China that any help, whether direct or indirect, given to Iran, including intelligence or military equipment, was “totally unacceptable.”
Stocks to Watch
- Akamai Technologies rose 3.2% after announcing a multiyear deal with Anthropic, making it a key winner of the session.
- Meta Platforms (META), despite a 3.33% decline on Friday to 751.66, was a significant weekly winner, climbing 11.64% driven by excitement around its AI agent, Muse.
- Microsoft (MSFT) advanced 3.66% to 516.17, adding 5.28% for the week, after announcing plans to merge its consumer and workplace Copilot AI assistants.
- Alphabet (GOOG) rose 0.61% to 341.08, contributing to the AI stock performance.
- Semiconductor equipment manufacturers Applied Materials (AMAT) gained 2.27% to 485.00, and Lam Research (LRCX) rose 2.62% to 315.21, as hardware shares were mostly higher.
- Costco (COST) was a notable mover, up 2.93% to 922.77, after posting an uptick in profit and sales in its fiscal fourth-quarter, suggesting solid consumer demand.
- Oracle (ORCL) lost 1.75% to 137.10 on Friday.