Market Overview
US equity markets experienced a robust rally, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching a new record close, primarily driven by strong performances in the technology and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors. Optimism surrounding AI innovations, notably from key chipmakers, coupled with a significant decline in global oil prices and US Treasury yields, bolstered investor sentiment. The fall in oil prices was partially attributed to renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, easing some immediate concerns about supply disruptions. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hike continue to suggest potential for hawkish monetary policy and sustained inflation risks. As the APAC session commences, market participants will be closely monitoring commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and anticipating the outcomes of an upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
In corporate news, JPMorgan and Qatar are reportedly considering a $28 billion partnership. Separately, Paramount Skydance reached a settlement with California and 11 other states, clearing the path for its $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.
Markets
US equity indices closed significantly higher. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced by 2.26%, settling at a record 27,122.09. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 1.49%, ending the day at 7,764.70, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 0.71%, closing at 52,048.83.
Australian shares are set to open higher, with ASX 200 futures pointing up 28 points or 0.3% to 8808 near 6:30am AEST.
In commodities, Brent Crude (BZ=F) traded at $96.01 a barrel, declining 7.57%, and WTI Crude (CL=F) traded at $91.96 a barrel, falling 8.32%. Gold (GC=F) traded at $4,378.80 an ounce, down 1.04%, while Iron Ore traded at $96.95 a tonne, down 0.3%.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rallied 7.15%, trading at $86,942. The Australian Dollar (AUDUSD=X) traded at 0.7122, up 0.09%.
US Treasury yields eased, with the 10-Year Treasury (^TNX) standing at 4.963%, shedding 3.50 bp, and the 30-Year Treasury (^TYX) standing at 5.296%, shedding 3.50 bp.
What Drove Markets
AI-Driven Tech Rally Fuels US Equities: US equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq, surged to new records, primarily propelled by significant gains in artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks. This momentum stemmed from optimism surrounding Meta Platforms’ advancements with its Muse AI offering, an agentic assistant capable of executing multi-step tasks. The increased reliance on central processing units (CPUs) for agentic AI generated a bullish outlook for chipmakers. Supporting the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive, contributing to its rally.
Oil Prices Retreat Amid Diplomacy Hopes and Supply Dynamics: Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude briefly dipping below $100 a barrel. This decline was linked to easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, supported by US Central Command reports of robust crude transfers through the Strait of Hormuz. Hopes for diplomatic progress between the US and Iran at the UN General Assembly further contributed to the downward pressure. Despite this, the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia still appeared to be out of action, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was identified as “another frontier for oil supply disruption” due to Iran-backed Houthis pushing to gain leverage. Overall traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to decline, even as Saudi oil exports reportedly bounced back to a little over 4 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in September, up from 2.4 million bpd in August.
Monetary Policy and Persistent Inflation Risks: Despite easing bond yields and a rally in risk assets, the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hike, its first in three years, underscored ongoing concerns about sticky inflation and elevated yields. The U.S. retail diesel price rose to a record. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, suggested that sustained high energy prices would further support interest rate increases and that supply risks were not diminishing. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, observed that ongoing geopolitical conflict was contributing to both elevated energy prices and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, while also impacting Chinese refiners. He added that the Fed’s inflation outlook depended on oil markets stabilizing. Former World Bank governor Yerbol Orynbayev cautioned that a series of Fed rate increases could lead to renewed friction between the Administration and the central bank. He also warned that such increases, coupled with energy costs having risen 13% since January 2025, could create a persistent and potentially stagflationary problem for the US economy.
Key US-China Diplomatic Engagements Anticipated: A significant summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled for this week during the UN General Assembly. Discussions are expected to cover critical economic issues including artificial intelligence, tariffs, and critical minerals, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent having met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in advance. This meeting holds considerable importance for global trade and economic relations and could potentially include talks concerning Iran, as China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude. President Trump indicated he would “probably be open to meeting” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during this week’s UN General Assembly.
Stocks to Watch
- Meta Platforms (META): Closed at $741.24, up 11.34%, surging higher on optimism about its Muse AI offering and leading the tech sector’s AI stock rally.
- Intel (INTC): Closed at $121.78, up 12.14%, benefiting from the bullish scenario for CPU-reliant agentic AI advancements.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Closed at $615.52, up 9.95%, adding significantly and surpassing a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time, identified as a key beneficiary of the agentic AI trend.
- Arm Holdings (ARM): Closed at $322.90, up 17.16%, improving notably as a company set to benefit from the increased reliance on CPUs for agentic AI.
- Brent Crude (BZ=F): Traded at $96.01, down 7.57%, sliding significantly as its decline was attributed to easing supply fears and hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, bolstering Wall Street.
- 10-Year Treasury (^TNX): Stood at 4.963%, shedding 3.50 bp, as its yield declined alongside falling oil prices, contributing to the market advance by dampening macroeconomic concerns.
- Australian Dollar (AUDUSD=X): Traded at 0.7122, up 0.09%, providing crucial currency context for APAC investors ahead of upcoming RBA commentary.
- S&P/ASX 200 futures: Were pointing up 28 points or 0.3% to 8808, directly signaling the expected opening direction for Australian shares.