Market Overview
Global markets are gripped by risk aversion as European equities open lower, extending losses from a challenging APAC session. A confluence of surging bond yields across Europe and the US, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices significantly higher, and persistent inflation concerns are reinforcing expectations for further central bank tightening.
APAC equities closed broadly lower, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declining for a second consecutive day. European indices also traded in negative territory, while US stock futures pointed to a lower open, reflecting the broad risk-off sentiment.
Markets
In Asia-Pacific, the S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) closed down 0.77% at 8,660.90, marking its second straight day of declines. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (^N225) fell 1.42% to close at 69,042.11, and South Korea’s Kospi (^KS11) ended the day down 2.62% at 6,625.93. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (^HSI) closed at 23,785.79, down 1.43%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 also declined by 1.09%.
European equities opened lower, with Germany’s DAX (^GDAXI) trading down 1.13% at 24,819.88, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (^FTSE) tracking lower by 0.42% at 10,414.42. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was 0.85% lower, while France’s CAC 40 shed 0.81% and Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 0.98% in morning trade.
In the US, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed at 7,801.77, down 0.22% in the prior session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) down 0.66% at 51,179.87, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closing 0.22% lower at 27,538.69. US stock futures were trading lower in the pre-market, with Dow futures down 0.97% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.80%.
Commodities saw significant movement, with Brent Crude (BZ=F) trading up 4.88% at $105.09 and WTI Crude (CL=F) also gaining 4.88% to trade at $92.59, both surging on geopolitical fears. Gold (GC=F) was marginally higher by 0.10% at $4,144.80, after touching a nine-week low overnight. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was trading lower by 0.96% at 82,478 amid broader market jitters.
Bond markets remained under pressure. The US 10-year Treasury (^TNX) yield was trading at 5.277%, up 0.80 bp, while the US 30-year Treasury (^TYX) yield stood at 5.661%, up 2.00 bp, after trading near 24-year highs in the previous session.
What Drove Markets
Global bond market strains are a primary concern, with European yields surging overnight amidst renewed debt concerns, notably in France, Italy, and the UK. France’s 10-year yield surged 12 basis points to 4.86%, Italy’s 10-year yield rose 10 basis points to 4.62%, and UK gilts (10-year yield) increased 7 basis points to 5.44%. The Australian 10-year government bond yield is at its highest level since 2011. US Treasury yields also climbed following hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and ahead of a long-dated bond auction. The growing “tidal wave of AI-linked debt” is cited as a factor contributing to elevated Treasury yields. Analysts at Vital Knowledge suggested that the building tidal wave of AI-linked debt makes it very hard for Treasury yields to go down.
Middle East geopolitical risks are significantly impacting oil prices. Escalating tensions, including increased attacks on shipping and reports of potential US military action against Iran, drove the substantial gains in Brent and WTI crude. President Donald Trump stated he does not want to make a deal with Iran to end the war, while an Axios report indicated the Pentagon instructed the U.S. military to complete preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran. The Atlantic also reported that US President Donald Trump is considering striking Iran before the midterm elections in November.
Inflationary pressures and central bank outlook remain at the forefront. Higher energy prices are anticipated to keep inflation elevated, increasing the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said more interest rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation. Markets are pricing in a roughly 71% probability of a December rate increase by the Fed. October inflation expectations in Australia climbed to a four-month high, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hiking cycle expected to add further pressure on local markets.
Major equity indices in APAC and Europe are reflecting the broad risk-off sentiment driven by higher borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty. VanEck senior portfolio manager Cameron McCormack noted that the ASX is on track for its worst October since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, currently down 1.6% since the start of the year.
The AI investment cycle’s bond impact continues to draw attention, with large-scale financing arrangements for AI chip development and infrastructure by major tech players contributing to the “tidal wave of AI-linked debt.” Broadcom is moving to gather over $50 billion in financing for OpenAI’s custom AI chip, and Elon Musk’s SpaceX is in talks with lenders over securing $40 billion in financing to buy Nvidia processors. Cloud giant Oracle is also in discussions with Apollo and Goldman Sachs over a large chip purchase.
Stocks to Watch
On the S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO), the materials and financials sectors dragged the bourse lower. BHP Group (BHP.AX) closed down 2.02% at 61.19, and Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) fell 2.86% to 161.97. Energy stocks, however, rallied with oil price gains, with Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) closing up 2.57% at 32.31. Consumer staples also saw investors moving into more defensive areas, with Woolworths (WOW.AX) rising 1.65% to 38.85. Other notable movers on the ASX included Lynas Rare Earths, which lost 5.3% to $12.40, and Deep Yellow, which tumbled 7.1% to $1.06, while Coles rose 1.4% to $23.20 and Endeavour rallied 1.7% to $3.02. Lottery Corp. (-3.8%), Xero (-3.0%), and Endeavor Group (-1.7%) also lagged.
PepsiCo (PEP) was trading down 1.58% at 123.73 after reporting third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street estimates but lowering its full-year profit outlook.
In the technology and AI sector, Broadcom (AVGO) was up 0.19% at 376.51. Oracle (ORCL) was down 0.84% at 143.56. NVIDIA (NVDA) traded down 0.74% at 237.47. SpaceX (SPCX) was down 2.51% at 167.60. Goldman Sachs (GS) was down 1.11% at 887.21. In Asia, Samsung (005930.KS) closed down 2.42% at 262,000.00, despite forecasting its strongest ever third-quarter profit amid robust AI-fueled demand for memory chips, a figure slightly below the higher end of market expectations. Data center operator Applied Digital saw a spike in revenue due to solid AI demand, but its spending on property and equipment dwarfed free cash flow, highlighting massive outlays required for the AI boom.
European stocks also saw individual movements, with ASML (ASML.AS) trading down 1.12% at 1,592.20, LVMH (MC.PA) down 1.24% at 383.65, and Siemens (SIE.DE) down 2.71% at 263.85. In contrast, Shell (SHEL.L) booked gains, trading up 2.28% at 3,731.00 as energy shares traded higher with rising oil prices. HSBC (-2%), Novartis (-1.1%), and L’Oreal (-1%) were lower, while TotalEnergies (1.1%) booked gains.