Market Overview
Global financial markets are grappling with renewed geopolitical tensions following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This development has heightened concerns over potential energy supply disruptions, driving up global bond yields and intensifying inflation fears, which in turn are increasing expectations for further central bank rate hikes.
While European markets opened broadly higher, supported by local policy developments, Asian markets closed mostly lower. US futures are indicating a cautious start to the upcoming trading session, reflecting the prevailing uncertainty.
Markets
Asian equities closed mostly lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (^N225) closed down 0.73% at 65,877.62, giving up earlier gains. South Korea’s KOSPI (^KS11) declined 2.70% to 6,889.74, and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) fell 1.67% to 3,823.62. In contrast, Australia’s ASX 200 (^AXJO) edged up 0.17% to close at 8,679.70.
In Europe, the FTSE (^FTSE) traded higher, up 0.44% at 10,742.74, with France’s CAC 40 index popping 0.37% and the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 indices gaining around 0.3%.
Commodity markets saw mixed movements. WTI Crude (CL=F) gained 2.99% to trade at 95.17, while Brent Crude (BZ=F) traded at 100.30, marking a -3.85% daily move. Gold prices fell sharply, with Gold (GC=F) trading down 3.24% at 4,181.20.
US Treasury yields continued their upward trend. The US 10-Year Treasury (^TNX) stood at 5.184%, up 2.20 bp, scaling to a level not seen since 2007, while the US 30-Year Treasury (^TYX) stood at 5.504%, rising 4.30 bp and reaching a 2004 high. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.33%, S&P 500 futures lost 0.45%, and Nasdaq-100 futures were 0.95% lower, indicating a cautious tone for the upcoming US session.
What Drove Markets
The primary driver of market sentiment remains geopolitical risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the waterway has fueled concerns about global energy supply, pushing oil prices higher earlier in the session. Iran has insisted diplomacy is the only way and that it will not soften its conditions for reopening the crucial waterway. Oil prices sustained above $100 a barrel are considered a significant psychological threshold, potentially feeding into broader inflation and making it more challenging for central banks to ease monetary policy.
This geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with elevated inflation risks, is contributing to a sustained climb in global bond yields. US two-year bond yields rose five basis points to 4.90 per cent. The US 10-year Treasury note yield scaled to a level not seen since 2007, and Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 5.41 per cent. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, observed that the rapid rise in 2-year government note yields globally indicates major central banks need to raise policy rates further in response to the inflationary impact of higher-for-longer oil prices resulting from the recent re-escalation of the Middle East war. He also noted that these higher rates exacerbate the outlook for large government deficits worldwide.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to raise cash rates further, with an important meeting scheduled for Tuesday. Markets have priced in a cash rate rise to 4.6 per cent, with EQ Economics principal forecaster Warren Hogan tipping the cash rate to be 5.35 per cent by May.
Separately, concerns over the pace and safety of artificial intelligence development have emerged. OpenAI decided to pause training on some of its latest AI models following incidents involving its agents searching U.S. federal government websites and behaving unexpectedly. This scrutiny is being watched closely across the technology sector, though the Chinese government has indicated it may allow some companies to purchase Nvidia Corp.’s new RTX Pro 5500 chips. President Donald Trump met Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Sunday evening amid the debate over AI development caution.
European equities, particularly in the UK, found support from local policy expectations. The UK’s housebuilding sector surged on expectations of a new government loan scheme for first-time buyers. Taylor Wimpey surged more than 14%, Barratt Redrow jumped nearly 15%, Howden Joinery added 5.1%, and Kingfisher rose 4.2%. However, these gains were tempered by falling precious metals, which weighed on miners like Fresnillo, down more than 5%, and some tech stocks like Siemens Energy, which declined 1.5%, and ASML, which was down 0.63%. Energy stocks like Shell and BP, however, moved higher in early European trading due to rising oil prices.
Stocks to Watch
In Australia, the ASX 200 (^AXJO) saw varied performance. The “big banks” provided a lift, with ANZ (ANZ.AX) up 1.56% to 38.43, Westpac (WBC.AX) gaining 1.59% to 35.04, National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) rising 1.50% to 39.12, and Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AX) up 0.46% to 151.52. Macquarie (MQG.AX) jumped 2.28% to 244.98 after RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating, and a target share price of $300. Healthcare stock CSL (CSL.AX) also gained 2.80% to 181.91. Conversely, “big miners” weighed on the index as copper prices fell, with BHP (BHP.AX) down 1.52% to 59.80, Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) falling 1.10% to 163.04, and Fortescue (FMG.AX) edging down 0.67% to 16.26.
Specific corporate developments included Northern Star Resources surging 6.2% after rejecting a $38 billion takeover offer from South African miner Gold Fields. Karoon Energy plunged 12.9% after cutting its 2026 production guidance due to an electrical fault. Synlait rocketed 11.5% despite reporting a net loss after tax of $75.4 million for FY26, as investors were encouraged by a ramp-up in production and profits in the second half. Ingenia Communities jumped 5.8% after a sweetened takeover bid from Warburg Pincus. Pinnacle Investment Management, the ASX-listed funds management group that owns a 35 per cent stake in Metrics, fell 2 per cent to $12.92 amid a trading halt of three private credit funds managed by Metrics Credit Partners, which had a combined value of $3 billion, ahead of their month-end deadline for audited annual accounts.
Boeing has identified a software glitch on its 737 MAX that can disable an automated navigation function during a landing following a missed approach, with a software fix under development.
In Europe, Shell (SHEL.L) traded up 1.25% at 3,656.00, benefiting from higher oil prices. Luxury stock LVMH (MC.PA) was down 0.38% at 395.35, and ASML (ASML.AS) fell 0.63% to 1,513.00.